Clearer US crypto regulation could set the stage for a new phase of institutional and sovereign adoption in 2026, according to a new outlook from crypto banking group Sygnum. The firm expects regulatory clarity to accelerate two long-anticipated trends: the emergence of sovereign Bitcoin reserves and a broader shift by banks toward tokenized financial infrastructure.
In a report shared with Cointelegraph, Sygnum pointed to pending US legislation, including the proposed CLARITY Act and the Bitcoin Act, as potential catalysts. Together, these measures could provide the legal certainty that governments and large financial institutions have been waiting for, lowering barriers to deeper engagement with digital assets.
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Sygnum argues that clearer rules in the world’s largest capital market would strengthen Bitcoin’s credibility as a treasury asset, not just in the US but globally. That shift, the firm says, could prompt several major economies to formalize Bitcoin holdings as part of their sovereign reserves.
Early movers may turn Bitcoin into a strategic asset for states
According to Sygnum, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and asymmetric upside create strong incentives for early adopters. Once one country moves, others may feel pressure to follow, transforming reserve diversification into what the firm describes as a competitive, game-theoretic race rather than an ideological debate.
The report suggests that financially pragmatic countries facing currency pressures could be among the first to act. Sygnum highlighted Brazil, Japan, Germany, Hong Kong and Poland as jurisdictions where political discussions around national Bitcoin reserves have already taken place in recent years.
Brazil’s lower house debated a Bitcoin reserve proposal in 2025, while lawmakers in Hong Kong floated a similar idea in late 2024. In Japan, a sitting lawmaker publicly urged the government to consider reallocating part of its foreign exchange reserves into Bitcoin, citing developments in the US. Germany and Poland have also seen political figures raise the prospect of state-backed Bitcoin holdings, though without concrete policy follow-through so far.
Sygnum does not expect aggressive allocations. Instead, it projects modest reserve exposures of up to 1% of total assets. Even so, the firm argues the signaling effect would be significant. Over time, broader sovereign participation could help Bitcoin close part of the gap with gold as a global store of value, lifting its share of that market from roughly 6% today to as much as 25%. In Sygnum’s modeling, that scenario implies a long-term Bitcoin price range of $350,000 to $400,000.
Not everyone expects sovereign demand to scale quickly
Some market participants caution that the path to sovereign Bitcoin adoption may be slower and more fragmented than optimistic forecasts suggest.
Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of blockchain oracle provider RedStone, noted that while Bitcoin’s liquid supply has fallen by around 30% over the past 18 months, this trend has largely been driven by institutional investors and exchange-traded funds, rather than governments.
He said that in 2026, experimentation is more likely to come from US states and municipalities than from major G20 economies. Political constraints also remain a key hurdle. In Brazil, for example, pressure from international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund could limit the scope for unconventional reserve strategies, Kazmierczak added.
Total tokenized RWA value by assets. Source: RWA.xyz
Banks edge closer to tokenized bond issuance
Beyond sovereign adoption, Sygnum sees momentum building in traditional finance for blockchain-based capital markets infrastructure. The firm expects tokenization to move closer to the mainstream in 2026, with up to 10% of new bond issuance by large institutions potentially issued directly on-chain.
Sygnum co-founder and group CEO Mathias Imbach said the transition will be gradual, likely unfolding over five years or more. However, he emphasized that strategic decisions being made now will shape how quickly tokenized finance scales.
Tokenized bonds could offer tangible advantages, including faster settlement times and improved collateral efficiency. These features may allow such instruments to trade at a premium, creating economic incentives for early adopters among banks and issuers.
The market is already taking shape. Data from RWA.xyz shows that roughly $1.1 billion in corporate bonds have been tokenized to date, accounting for just over 5% of the $21 billion tokenized real-world asset market. While still small relative to global bond markets, the trend signals growing comfort with blockchain rails for regulated financial products.