The golden period of easy premiums for crypto treasury firms appears to be over, but analysts suggest that this shift could ultimately strengthen the industry and drive markets higher.

In a report released on Wednesday, Coinbase head of research David Duong and researcher Colin Basco said the landscape for digital asset treasuries (DATs) has entered a new, more competitive “player versus player” phase. In this stage, only firms with strong execution, differentiation, and well-timed strategies are likely to thrive, they noted.

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“The days of easy money and guaranteed mNAV [multiple of Net Asset Value] premiums are over,” the researchers wrote. “Strategically positioned players will thrive, and the broader crypto markets will benefit from unprecedented capital flowing from these vehicles to supercharge returns.”

Concerns have grown in recent months that the sector may be oversaturated, with too many treasury-focused firms attempting to mimic the early success of giants like MicroStrategy, known simply as “Strategy” in the report. NYDIG recently observed that several of these companies saw their valuations fall even as Bitcoin continued to rally.

Crypto Treasuries at a Critical Juncture

According to Coinbase’s analysts, the “scarcity premium” that benefitted early adopters has already dissipated. Where early movers were able to capture significant premiums by being first in line, new entrants now face intense pressure from competition, regulatory scrutiny, and execution risks.

“This sector has reached a critical inflection point,” Duong and Basco wrote. “Success now depends on more than just copying MicroStrategy’s playbook. Execution, differentiation, and timing are becoming the decisive factors.”

“September Effect” Lacks Reliability

The researchers also pushed back on the idea of the so-called “September effect,” where Bitcoin historically underperformed in the month of September. Bitcoin posted losses for six consecutive Septembers between 2017 and 2022, leading many traders to treat the pattern as a market truth.

Source: David Duong

However, Coinbase pointed out that those relying on the seasonal trend would have been wrong in both 2023 and 2024. “Month-of-year isn’t a statistically dependable predictor of Bitcoin’s performance,” the analysts said. “We don’t think monthly seasonality is a particularly useful trading signal.”

Fed Rate Cuts Could Fuel Q4 Rally

Looking ahead, Coinbase expects macroeconomic conditions to support a continued crypto rally. Duong and Basco forecast that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice — first at its meeting next week and again in October.

Such cuts, they argue, will provide additional liquidity and favorable conditions for risk assets like Bitcoin, especially with US inflation ticking up 0.4% in August to 2.9% over the past year.

“Heading into Q4, we maintain a constructive outlook on crypto markets, anticipating continued support from robust liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and encouraging regulatory developments,” they said.