US President Donald Trump said a person he described as the “leaker on Venezuela” has been identified and jailed, comments that have reignited scrutiny of political prediction markets after a series of unusually timed wagers earlier this month.
Source: WSJ
Related reporting: Polymarket account behind $400K Maduro bet vanishes, fueling insider trading concerns
Speaking in the Oval Office on Wednesday, Trump said the leaker “has been found and is in jail right now,” according to a video shared by The Wall Street Journal. While the president did not reference betting platforms directly, blockchain analysts quickly connected the remarks to activity on Polymarket, where several accounts placed concentrated bets on outcomes tied to Venezuela shortly before related developments became public.
Dormant wallets raise questions after Venezuela wagers
On-chain analysts at Lookonchain said that two of the three wallets that previously profited from bets on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro leaving office have been inactive for more than a week.
One account, identified as 0xa72DB1, reportedly turned a $5,800 wager into roughly $75,000 by betting that Maduro would be out of office by Jan. 31, 2026. Another wallet, 0x31a56e, placed multiple bets tied to Venezuelan political events before going silent around Jan. 8.
A third account remains active, shifting focus to Iran
The remaining wallet, known as SBet365, has continued to place bets on Polymarket, according to Lookonchain. Two days ago, the account wagered on the possibility that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be ousted by Jan. 31.
SBet365 was also among the most profitable accounts during the Venezuela betting surge, with estimated gains of about $140,000 linked to wagers on Maduro’s potential removal. Trump suggested the possibility of further arrests, adding that there “could be some others” connected to the leak.
Source: Polymarket
Regulatory pressure on political betting intensifies
The episode comes as US lawmakers increase pressure on prediction markets, with proposed legislation aimed at curbing insider trading tied to political wagers.
Sean Patrick Maloney, president and CEO of the Coalition for Prediction Markets, said industry participants already prohibit insider trading through strict identity checks and compliance measures. He argued that a clear distinction must be maintained between regulated US platforms and offshore operators.
“Offshore, unregistered platforms should not be able to operate in the US or serve US customers without the same safeguards,” Maloney said, adding that responsible oversight is essential as political betting continues to grow.