A Polymarket user who made roughly $400,000 from a controversial wager on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has quietly disappeared from the platform, intensifying scrutiny around prediction markets and potential insider activity.
The account, identified by the wallet address 0x31a56e, placed a $32,000 bet on Maduro’s capture and ouster shortly before reports emerged of US military and law enforcement involvement. Days after the market resolved in the user’s favor, the account’s public Polymarket profile became inaccessible.
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As of Thursday afternoon, attempts to access the account returned an error message, while other user profiles on the platform remained visible. Polymarket has not publicly explained whether the account was deleted, suspended, or affected by a technical issue.
Source: Wayback Machine
Large payout moved offchain within hours
Archived data suggests the account did not limit its activity to a single outcome. In the days leading up to the event, the user placed multiple related bets tied to escalating US involvement in Venezuela, including wagers on US forces entering the country, an invasion scenario, and whether President Donald Trump would invoke war powers.
Blockchain records show that shortly after the market resolved, the wallet linked to the Polymarket account received approximately $436,700 in USDC from the platform’s CTF exchange. Within hours, nearly the full amount was transferred out of the address, effectively closing the position.
The timing and structure of the trades have drawn attention due to their precision and proximity to real-world developments.
Source: Lookonchain
Prediction markets face growing transparency pressure
Polymarket has not responded to requests for comment on the status of the account or whether any internal review is underway. The company’s privacy policy allows users to request deletion of personal data, leaving open the possibility that the profile was voluntarily removed.
The incident adds to a broader debate over insider trading risks on prediction markets, where participants can profit from political, military, or regulatory outcomes that may involve non-public information.
Concerns are no longer limited to crypto-native observers. US lawmakers, including Representative Ritchie Torres, have voiced support for legislation aimed at restricting insider trading and improving oversight of event-based betting platforms.
Scrutiny has intensified further following reports of another trader with a near-perfect win rate placing a high-confidence bet on US military action against Iran, renewing questions about whether prediction markets can reliably distinguish informed speculation from privileged knowledge.