Bitcoin staged a modest recovery on Friday, reclaiming the $116,000 mark for the first time in three weeks. But behind the price rebound, blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant has warned that most key bull market indicators are flashing red, hinting that the rally could be losing steam.

According to CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, eight out of ten of its core indicators have turned bearish, with only “Bitcoin demand growth” and “technical signals” remaining in positive territory. The firm’s head analyst JA Maartun said that “momentum is clearly cooling,” raising questions about whether the market has already passed its strongest phase of the year.

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Bull Score Index indicators are bearish. Source: CryptoQuant

What the indicators show

The index pulls together ten different on-chain and market signals. Those that have flipped bearish include the MVRV-Z score — which measures Bitcoin’s price relative to its realized value — the profit and loss index, cycle indicators, exchange flow pulse, and several metrics tracking liquidity and trader profitability.

Stablecoin liquidity, network activity, and trader realized price are also in the red, reflecting weaker inflows and less confidence among participants. By contrast, demand growth for BTC has remained steady since July, and technical analysis metrics still suggest short-term bullish potential.

The last time eight out of ten metrics turned bearish was in April, when Bitcoin corrected sharply to $75,000. Conversely, in July, the same number of indicators were bullish as BTC surged to its 2025 high of $122,800.

Market sentiment remains cautious

CryptoQuant’s overall Bull Score Index has been hovering between 20 and 30 this month, indicating a period of market correction. CoinGlass’ Bitcoin Bull Run Index, which uses nine different metrics, currently sits at 74 — suggesting the market is still roughly three-quarters of the way through its bull cycle.

Importantly, only one of CoinGlass’ 30 bull market peak signals has been triggered — the altcoin season index — suggesting that, despite the cooling momentum, a full market top may not yet be in.

Bitcoin lagging behind altcoins, equities, and gold

Market observers note that Bitcoin has underperformed compared to altcoins, equities, and even gold in recent weeks. Augustine Fan, head of insights at crypto trading software provider SignalPlus, told Cointelegraph that net buying momentum has slowed significantly, with institutional treasury purchases tapering off and centralized exchanges reporting fewer new inflows.

“The short-term picture looks a bit more challenging,” Fan said, pointing to seasonal weakness across risk assets. “We would prefer a more defensive stance consistent with the current macro story.”

BTC reclaimed $116K briefly. Source: 

Others, however, see the September downturn as part of the usual cycle rather than the end of the bull run. Crypto podcaster Tony Edward argued that global liquidity has rebounded, suggesting the current bull market may extend longer than expected. “We could potentially see a local top in Q4 and a blowoff top in Q1 2026,” he said.

BTC regains momentum, but risks remain...

Despite the bearish signals, Bitcoin managed to notch a 1.5% daily gain on Friday, pushing its price above $116,000. The asset now sits just 6.8% below its all-time high, with the current correction still far milder than previous bull cycles.

Whether the recovery holds or falters will likely depend on broader macroeconomic forces, particularly interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the pace of institutional inflows into crypto funds.