Bitcoin analyst PlanC has argued that traders expecting Bitcoin to hit its cycle-high price in the final quarter of this year are relying on flawed logic and a poor understanding of statistics. He believes the only factor driving these forecasts is a kind of “psychological, self-fulfilling prophecy” rather than sound analysis.
In a post on X on Friday, PlanC pushed back against the idea that Bitcoin must peak in Q4 simply because it has happened in previous cycles. “Anyone who thinks Bitcoin has to peak in Q4 of this year does not understand statistics or probability,” he wrote.
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Source: Daniel Sempere Pico
He compared this reasoning to gambling odds, saying that relying on the last three halving cycles as proof of what will happen next is like flipping a coin and landing on tails three times, then betting everything that the fourth flip must also be tails. In statistical terms, the data set is far too small to make such a conclusion meaningful.
The comments come as several analysts and traders continue to make bold predictions for Bitcoin’s trajectory, with many suggesting that the current market will mimic earlier halving cycles. But PlanC emphasized that the historical data does not provide the level of reliability people assume, warning traders not to treat previous patterns as guarantees for the future.
Bitcoin unlikely to top in Q4 without fundamentals, analyst argues.
The analyst went on to argue that Bitcoin’s traditional halving cycle is no longer the key driver it once was, pointing to changes in market structure and the growing influence of new players. He noted that the debate over whether halving cycles still matter has become increasingly relevant with the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies and the massive inflows into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs, both of which are reshaping how capital flows into the market.
According to him, there is “zero fundamental reason — other than a psychological, self-fulfilling prophecy — for the peak to occur in Q4 2025.” While historical performance data shows that Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter since 2013, with an average return of 85.42% based on figures from CoinGlass, he emphasized that past averages are not guarantees of future outcomes.
Some analysts have previously suggested that if the halving cycle were still playing a major role, Bitcoin could even start a downtrend as early as October, instead of rising to a new cycle high. This highlights the uncertainty and divergence of views within the industry.
Bitcoin is up 96.15% over the past 12 months. Source: CoinMarketCap
Traders and analysts remain divided over whether Bitcoin will follow historical patterns and peak by the end of the year, or whether new factors such as institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and corporate treasuries have permanently changed the market’s rhythm.
Debate grows over whether Bitcoin bull market will extend into 2026
The outlook for Bitcoin’s future remains deeply divided among analysts and industry leaders. On Aug. 17, Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg suggested that there is a “greater than 50% chance” Bitcoin will climb into the $140,000 to $150,000 range before the end of this year. However, he also cautioned that such a move could be followed by a bear market in 2026, signaling a possible cyclical downturn after the rally.
Not everyone shares this cautious view. Some believe the current bull market still has significant room to run, potentially extending well into 2026. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan expressed optimism in July, saying, “I bet 2026 is an up year,” implying that broader adoption and market momentum could sustain Bitcoin’s growth beyond the typical cycle expectations.
At the same time, several other high-profile analysts have predicted that Bitcoin could reach extraordinary new heights even before the year is over. In April 2025, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes projected that Bitcoin could climb as high as $250,000, citing growing institutional adoption and capital inflows as drivers. Just a month later, Joe Burnett, research director at Unchained, echoed the same forecast, reinforcing the increasingly bullish sentiment among some corners of the industry.
This divergence of opinions underscores the uncertainty facing Bitcoin investors. While some expect a strong finish to the year followed by a correction, others believe the ongoing bull cycle could stretch much longer, potentially rewriting expectations for how Bitcoin behaves in the post-ETF era.