Data challenges claims that Jane Street is engineering daily sell-offs in BTC

A wave of online speculation has accused quantitative trading firm Jane Street of orchestrating a daily 10 a.m. Eastern Time sell-off in Bitcoin. But market analysts and trading data suggest the pattern is neither consistent nor evidence of coordinated manipulation.

The narrative gained traction after Terraform Labs’ court-appointed administrator filed a lawsuit against Jane Street, alleging insider trading tied to transactions during the 2022 collapse of Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin ecosystem. The lawsuit reignited scrutiny around the firm’s crypto exposure and trading practices.

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Some crypto commentators argue that Jane Street’s reported holdings of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) could conceal a net short Bitcoin position. They claim the firm may be hedging ETF exposure through derivatives — such as futures or options — that do not appear in standard regulatory filings. According to this view, coordinated algorithmic selling at the US market open allows the firm to suppress spot prices and accumulate ETF shares at a discount.

However, analysts say such assumptions misunderstand how institutional trading strategies work.

Source: Julio Moreno

Delta-neutral strategies are common in crypto markets

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted that combining spot exposure with short futures positions is a widely used delta-neutral strategy. Funds employing this approach are typically seeking to capture basis spreads or arbitrage opportunities rather than directional price moves.

“These structures are common among market-neutral funds,” Moreno said, adding that they are not unique to any single firm.

Jane Street’s latest 13-F filing also disclosed positions in Strategy and several Bitcoin mining firms, including Bitfarms, Cipher Mining and Hut 8, underscoring its broad exposure across the crypto ecosystem.

Is there really a daily 10 a.m. Bitcoin drop?

The core of the online theory is that Bitcoin consistently falls shortly after 10 a.m. ET, coinciding with the US equity market open. Some traders have pointed to intraday charts showing short-term volatility during that window.

Source: Nonzee

But macro analyst Alex Krüger examined cumulative performance data since the start of the year and found no systematic pattern of declines. In fact, Bitcoin posted a net gain of 0.9% during the 10 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. interval over that period.

Krüger argued that perceived dips may reflect broader risk-asset repricing tied to equity markets, particularly the Nasdaq, rather than a targeted crypto-specific strategy. As institutional participation in crypto grows, correlations with traditional markets have increased, especially during periods of macro-driven volatility.

Source: Whale Factor

Market depth limits single-actor control

Even if algorithmic trading intensifies short-term volatility, analysts say the notion that one firm could single-handedly drive Bitcoin into a sustained bear market is unrealistic.

Nick Puckrin, co-founder and lead analyst at Coin Bureau, said Bitcoin’s price is shaped by a complex web of global liquidity flows, macroeconomic conditions and investor sentiment.

“It’s understandable that investors look for a villain during downturns,” Puckrin said. “But Bitcoin is a global, highly liquid asset. Its dynamics are far more nuanced than a single trading desk.”

Source: Alex Krüger

Recent price weakness, he added, is better explained by geopolitical uncertainty, tightening liquidity conditions and competition for capital from fast-growing sectors such as artificial intelligence.

As crypto markets mature and institutional trading activity expands, volatility around key market opens may persist. But so far, data does not support the claim of a coordinated daily “10 a.m. dump.”