Bank trims Treasury bill impact estimate but remains bullish on long-term stablecoin growth

Standard Chartered has maintained its projection that the global stablecoin market will reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028, even as it lowered expectations for the scale of short-term US Treasury bill demand tied to the sector.

In a report shared with Cointelegraph, analyst Geoffrey Kendrick and US rates strategist John Davies said dollar-backed stablecoins such as USDT and USDC are still poised for significant expansion. While the dollar stablecoin market cap has hovered near $300 billion amid a broader crypto downturn, the bank views the slowdown as cyclical rather than structural.

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The analysts pointed to the passage of the US GENIUS Act in 2025 as a key regulatory catalyst supporting longer-term adoption, particularly for institutional use cases and payment infrastructure.

Source: Standard Chartered

Revised T-bill demand still substantial

Although Standard Chartered continues to expect robust growth in stablecoins, it has scaled back its forecast for the resulting demand for US Treasury bills. The bank now estimates that stablecoins could generate $800 billion to $1 trillion in additional T-bill demand by late 2028, down from a prior projection of $1.6 trillion made in April 2025.

Despite the reduction, the analysts suggested the impact could still be material for US government financing. They cited comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who described the GENIUS Act as potentially important to funding the US government.

The Treasury’s recent quarterly refunding announcement also referenced growing private-sector demand for T-bills. According to the report, stablecoin reserve requirements, combined with the Federal Reserve’s reserve management purchases and its shift from mortgage-backed securities into T-bills, could tighten supply dynamics.

In that scenario, Treasury bills could become relatively scarce if issuance does not keep pace with demand from stablecoin issuers and other institutional buyers.

Crypto outlook remains mixed

Beyond stablecoins, Standard Chartered reiterated its longer-term bullish stance on digital assets more broadly. The bank has previously projected Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2028.

However, near-term expectations have moderated. The analysts recently lowered their 2026 Bitcoin price target from $150,000 to $100,000 and warned that the asset could decline toward $50,000 before recovering,

reflecting ongoing market uncertainty.

The contrast underscores a broader theme in crypto markets: short-term volatility coexisting with longer-term structural optimism, particularly where regulation and institutional adoption are gaining traction.