Despite slowing Bitcoin acquisitions and weakening investor sentiment, Strategy — the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder — may soon join the S&P 500 index, according to a new report from 10x Research.

The analytics firm estimates a 60%–70% probability that Strategy could be added to the benchmark index following its Q3 2025 earnings report, set for release on Thursday, October 30. The company is expected to post a $3.8 billion fair-value gain on its Bitcoin holdings, which could propel it over the inclusion threshold for the December 19 rebalancing date.

Related reporting: 10x Research examines falling Bitcoin treasury premiums

“Capitulation always feels like the end — until it quietly marks the beginning,” the report said, suggesting that Strategy’s depressed stock sentiment could set the stage for a major reversal. “The October 30 earnings release could reignite speculation around the December 5 S&P 500 inclusion decision — a scenario we assign a roughly 70% probability.”

According to 10x Research, the potential inclusion of Strategy would be a landmark moment for Bitcoin’s corporate adoption, signaling its deeper integration into traditional equity markets.

Strategy Bitcoin buying, Strategy NAV 30-day average, one-year chart. Source: 10x Research

Bitcoin slowdown tests investor conviction

While optimism grows about its S&P 500 chances, Strategy has faced challenges that reflect broader structural shifts across digital asset treasury (DAT) companies — publicly traded firms that hold Bitcoin as part of their balance sheets.

A key concern is the market net asset value (mNAV) ratio, which compares a company’s enterprise value to the market value of its crypto holdings. A ratio above 1 enables companies to raise new capital and expand their Bitcoin reserves. However, once mNAV dips below 1, it becomes significantly harder to issue shares or attract new investors.

This year, multiple DATs — including Strategy, Bitmine, Metaplanet (MTPLF), Sharplink Gaming (SBET), Upexi (UPXI), and DeFi Development Corp (DFDV) — have seen their mNAVs slip below that critical level.

The decline has slowed new Bitcoin purchases and triggered balance-sheet strain across the sector.

For Strategy, the slowdown has been particularly sharp. The company added only 778 Bitcoin in October, a 78% drop from the 3,526 BTC purchased in September, marking one of its smallest monthly hauls in over a year.

Still, analysts at 10x Research believe this slowdown could represent an inflection point rather than a setback. “With the NAV premium largely unwound, which caused $18 billion in losses for investors and volatility beginning to pick up again, the risk-reward dynamic is no longer about bracing for downside — it’s about preparing for what comes next.”

Digital asset treasuries’ mNAVs have been under broad pressure since June. Source: Standard Chartered

A turning point for crypto-linked equities

Despite the headwinds, Strategy remains the dominant corporate holder of Bitcoin, owning more than 200,000 BTC — roughly 1% of the total supply.

The firm’s influence has grown to the point that its stock price often moves in tandem with Bitcoin’s — and its inclusion in the S&P 500 would make it the first Bitcoin-treasury company to enter a major U.S. stock index.

In a related development, S&P Global Ratings recently assigned Strategy a “B-” credit rating, classifying it within speculative-grade territory, sometimes referred to as “junk bond” status. However, the report described the outlook as positive, reflecting confidence in the firm’s operational stability and Bitcoin-focused strategy.

10x Research believes this period of weakness could precede renewed momentum across the digital asset sector: “This is the point in the cycle where liquidity begins to return, and outsized moves take shape.”

If Strategy does make it into the S&P 500, it would mark a watershed moment — one that blends traditional finance with Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos in a way unseen before.