The idea that Bitcoin (BTC) follows a predictable four-year cycle may be evolving, but it is far from obsolete, according to a senior executive at crypto exchange Gemini.

Speaking at Token2049 in Singapore, Saad Ahmed, Gemini’s head of the Asia-Pacific region, said market cycles are unlikely to vanish because they are rooted in human psychology.

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“I think when it comes to the four-year cycle, the reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle,” Ahmed told Cointelegraph. “It ultimately stems from people getting really excited and overextending themselves, and then you kind of see a crash, and then it corrects to an equilibrium.”

While institutional participation is growing and could reduce Bitcoin’s extreme volatility, Ahmed argued that “human emotion” will always play a central role in creating boom-and-bust phases.

The debate around Bitcoin’s halving-linked four-year cycle has resurfaced in recent months, especially as the asset pushes toward new all-time highs.

Saad Ahmed spoke to Cointelegraph at Token2049 in Singapore. Source: Cointelegraph

Analysts Eye October as a Potential Cycle Peak

If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin may be nearing its cycle peak this month. Analyst Rekt Capital has argued that Bitcoin typically tops out around 550 days after a halving event — which would place the peak in October following April 2024’s halving.

“We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” Rekt wrote in a July analysis.

Bitcoin has surged 11.5% over the past week, reaching $123,850 on Oct. 3 — just shy of its $124,100 all-time high set in mid-August, according to CoinMarketCap.

Other experts, however, believe Bitcoin’s trajectory may not follow its historic cycle so neatly. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently suggested that 2026 could still be an “up year” regardless of halving cycle timing.

Q4 Historically Strong for Bitcoin

Adding to optimism, Bitcoin has historically outperformed in the final quarter of the year. Since 2013, Q4 has delivered an average return of nearly 80%, according to data from CoinGlass.

Whether the current rally extends into another explosive leg higher or begins to consolidate, Ahmed said cycles will remain part of the crypto landscape: “You’ll still see some sort of cycle, because ultimately, it’s driven by human emotion.”