Key points

  • Free-market trackers quoted the dollar near 2.69 million rials on October 3, above roughly 2.63 million a day earlier.
  • Iranian state television said state banks had begun selling up to $2 billion under a central-bank support operation.
  • The announced ceiling is not proof that the full amount has been sold, and the rial remained under pressure after the operation began.

Iran’s rial fell to a new low on October 3 even as state banks began selling dollars under a central-bank support operation worth up to $2 billion. Free-market trackers placed the U.S. dollar near 2.69 million rials, extending a decline that has already erased more than half of the currency’s value over the past year. The move adds to pressure on households and businesses facing inflation above 70% and restricted access to foreign currency.

The latest market readings

Bonbast, a free-market exchange-rate tracker, showed the dollar at about 2.688 million rials on Saturday, compared with roughly 2.632 million on Friday. A second tracker, Alanchand, put the rate near 2.695 million. Those prices refer to the open market rather than Iran’s official administered exchange rates, which can differ substantially. The direction was consistent across the independent readings: the rial weakened further after an already sharp annual decline.

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What the central bank announced

Iranian state television reported that state banks had started selling as much as $2 billion to support the currency. Reuters separately reported the operation and the market rates. The figure should be read as the announced maximum size of the intervention, not as evidence that the entire amount had already been deployed. The continued fall in the rial also shows that the initial sales had not immediately reversed market demand for dollars and other stores of value.

Why demand for hard currency is rising

High inflation reduces the purchasing power of savings held in rials and raises the local cost of imported goods. Reuters reported inflation above 70% and said many Iranians have been moving savings into dollars, other foreign currencies and gold. Sanctions and the naval blockade have also constrained oil exports and access to external financing, limiting the supply of hard currency available to the economy. Those forces can make a one-time intervention less effective if households and companies expect further depreciation.

Official reassurance meets market pressure

Mehdi Darabi, an adviser to the central-bank governor on foreign-exchange affairs, told state television that the latest decline was temporary and partly driven by expectations of economic collapse promoted by U.S. officials. That is the government’s explanation, not a verified forecast. The observable market evidence is narrower: open-market dollar prices rose, state banks began selling foreign currency, and the rial remained at a record low during the reported session.

What the intervention can and cannot do

Dollar sales can add liquidity and meet urgent demand, potentially slowing disorderly moves. They do not by themselves repair the fiscal, trade or inflation pressures that drive people toward foreign assets. Sustained support would depend on the central bank’s usable reserves, the pace of dollar sales and whether export receipts continue reaching the domestic market. Because reserve details are not fully disclosed, claims about how long the program can be maintained cannot be independently confirmed.

What to watch next

The next test is whether open-market rates stabilise after banks expand sales and whether the central bank publishes the amount actually delivered rather than only the ceiling. Traders will also watch inflation data, oil-export receipts and any change in sanctions or shipping restrictions. Until those indicators improve, the confirmed development is that a support program of up to $2 billion began while the rial continued to set new lows.

Sources

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