Key points

  • Vietnam’s third-quarter GDP increased 9.95% year on year, accelerating from revised growth of 8.81% in the second quarter.
  • Nine-month exports rose 24.5% to $434.30 billion, while imports climbed 36.7% to $453.72 billion, producing a $19.42 billion trade deficit.
  • September inflation reached 5.08% and import growth exceeded export growth, adding pressure to an economy expanding faster than external forecasts.

Vietnam’s economy expanded 9.95% in the third quarter from a year earlier, its fastest quarterly pace since the post-pandemic rebound, according to data released October 3 by the country’s National Statistics Office. Growth accelerated from a revised 8.81% in the second quarter and 8.15% in the first. The figures show strong momentum from manufacturing, infrastructure investment and exports, but they also reveal faster import growth, rising inflation and a widening external deficit.

Industry and construction led the expansion

Industry and construction grew 12.50% in the July-to-September period and accounted for 51.57% of the increase in total value added. Services expanded 9.54% and contributed 43.29%, while agriculture, forestry and fisheries grew 4.21%. Across the first nine months of 2026, GDP was estimated to be 9.01% higher than a year earlier. That is rapid by regional standards, although it remains below the government’s full-year objective of growth above 10%.

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Investment and trade supported demand

On the expenditure side, final consumption increased 8.96% from a year earlier and asset accumulation rose 21.39% in the third quarter. Exports of goods and services increased 23.27%, while imports rose 28.75%. The gap between those trade growth rates matters because Vietnam’s manufacturing sector depends heavily on imported energy, machinery and intermediate components, even as overseas demand supports factory output.

Imports turned the balance negative

Goods exports reached $59.48 billion in September, up 39.1% from a year earlier, while imports increased 45.8% to $58.21 billion. The month produced a $1.27 billion surplus, but the cumulative picture was weaker. In the first nine months, exports rose 24.5% to $434.30 billion and imports climbed 36.7% to $453.72 billion, leaving a record $19.42 billion trade deficit, Reuters reported from the official release.

Energy costs and inflation complicate the outlook

The import bill reflects higher costs as well as stronger domestic activity. Crude-oil import volumes fell 13.5% over the nine-month period, yet their value increased 14.4%. Refined-fuel imports rose 11.5% by volume and 79.3% by value. Consumer prices in September were 5.08% higher than a year earlier, while industrial production increased 16.7%. Those figures point to a strong production cycle accompanied by renewed cost pressure.

Capital inflows remain supportive

Total investment during the first nine months increased 16.7% year on year as the government accelerated infrastructure spending. Foreign investment inflows rose 12.1% to $21.1 billion. The Asian Development Bank recently raised its 2026 growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.8%, citing manufacturing, domestic consumption and foreign direct investment, but warned that higher energy prices, weaker global demand and tighter financial conditions could weigh on growth and the exchange rate.

Why the release matters beyond Vietnam

Vietnam is a major manufacturing base in Asian supply chains, so its combination of faster factory growth and a larger import bill has implications for regional exporters, shipping demand and companies diversifying production. Strong investment can support suppliers of machinery and construction materials, while persistent inflation or currency pressure could raise financing costs. The data therefore offer a mixed signal: capacity is expanding quickly, but the economy is absorbing more expensive inputs to sustain that pace.

The next test is whether momentum stays balanced

The third-quarter release confirms that Vietnam entered the final months of 2026 with broad-based growth rather than a single-sector surge. It does not, however, resolve whether investment-led expansion can continue without adding further inflation and trade pressure. The indicators to watch are the pace of import-cost pass-through, electricity availability for industry, public-investment execution and whether export demand remains strong enough to narrow the year-to-date deficit.

Sources

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