Bitcoin’s momentum may be fading as analysts caution that the top cryptocurrency could face a prolonged correction unless a new catalyst emerges to reignite investor enthusiasm.
According to a Wednesday report by Glassnode, Bitcoin risks “a deeper contraction toward the lower boundary” of its current trading range unless a renewed driver — such as stronger institutional demand or fresh macroeconomic optimism — pushes it back above $117,100.
Earlier coverage: Bitcoin ETFs extend ‘Uptober’ rally with $2.7B inflows, institutional appetite surges
Bitcoin has declined by 4.19% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $110,840, roughly 5% below that critical level, according to CoinMarketCap data. Glassnode analysts noted that when Bitcoin fails to hold above this threshold, “it has historically preceded prolonged mid- to long-term corrections,” particularly when profit-taking among long-term holders increases — a sign of possible “demand exhaustion.”
“Bitcoin has reached a stage where traders need a new narrative,” Glassnode’s report said. “Without it, we may see choppy, sideways price action as enthusiasm wanes.”
Analysts Expect Volatile October — but See Room for Recovery
Hyblock Capital CEO Shubh Varma told Cointelegraph that the coming weeks could bring heightened volatility, with potential upside limited to the $116,000–$120,000 range.
While he expects Bitcoin to consolidate after the recent crash, Varma emphasized that market fundamentals remain relatively strong. “ETF inflows remain healthy, and spot volumes are solid,” he said.
Before last week’s market-wide meltdown — which briefly sent Bitcoin plunging to $102,000 — U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a nine-day streak of inflows totaling $5.96 billion, according to Farside Investors.
Analysts also highlighted the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cuts as a potential bullish tailwind. Lower interest rates often boost demand for risk assets like cryptocurrencies by making traditional fixed-income investments less attractive. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 95.7% probability of another rate cut at the Fed’s Oct. 29 meeting.
Year-End Outlook “Increasingly Constructive,” Say Analysts
Despite the short-term uncertainty, some market strategists remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s trajectory heading into 2026.
Matt Mena, research strategist at 21Shares, said that the combination of recent market liquidations, easing monetary policy, and accelerating institutional inflows creates “an increasingly constructive setup for digital assets.”
He believes Bitcoin could climb toward $150,000 over the next few months if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.
Similarly, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, and Joe Burnett, research director at Unchained, both forecast Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by the end of 2025, citing continued institutional accumulation and structural demand from ETF inflows as key drivers.
“The fundamentals of Bitcoin haven’t changed,” Hayes said. “Short-term noise aside, liquidity and adoption continue to trend in one direction — up.”
Analysts warn that Bitcoin could face a deeper correction without a new market catalyst, though upcoming Fed rate cuts and strong ETF inflows may provide support. While short-term volatility is likely, long-term outlooks remain bullish, with some predicting $150,000–$250,000 BTC in the coming year.