Bitcoin may still face further downside before the next major rally, with one analyst suggesting the cryptocurrency could fall to around $57,000 by October 2026 based on past market cycle patterns.
According to Bitcoin investor and author Michael Terpin, the forecast is based on the “historical average” drawdown seen after previous market tops. Bitcoin reached its most recent peak above $126,000 in October 2025, and prior cycles suggest it typically takes about a year to form a bottom.
Earlier coverage: Bitcoin Falls Below $71K As US Blockades Strait Of Hormuz, Oil Prices Surge
Michael Terpin expects Bitcoin to bottom out around the $57,000 level. Source: TradingView
KEY PRICE LEVELS TO WATCH FOR NEXT MARKET MOVE
Bitcoin has recently struggled to hold momentum after being rejected near the $80,000 level, which analysts see as a key resistance zone before any attempt to reclaim the $100,000 mark.
Terpin noted that a sustained move back above $100,000 would likely require strong inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, continued accumulation by institutional players, and a stable market environment without large liquidations.
The target rate probabilities ahead of the April FOMC meeting. Source: CME
He added that while a return to $100,000 this year is possible, it remains unlikely under current conditions.
MACRO CONDITIONS AND LIQUIDITY PRESSURE WEIGH ON CRYPTO
Bitcoin is currently trading near $78,000, but broader macroeconomic factors continue to limit upside potential. Rising oil price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and tight monetary conditions in the United States are all contributing to cautious market sentiment.
With interest rates expected to remain unchanged, liquidity in financial markets remains constrained — a factor that typically impacts risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
ANALYSTS WARN CURRENT RALLY MAY BE SHORT-LIVED
Market sentiment also suggests that the recent Bitcoin recovery may not signal a full trend reversal.
Ahead of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, nearly all traders expect no rate cut, reinforcing expectations of continued tight financial conditions.
Analysts say the lack of strong retail excitement or “euphoria” during the current rally indicates limited upside in the near term. According to market analyst Matthew Hyland, Bitcoin could see another downward move before
stabilizing.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS POINT TO POSSIBLE RETRACEMENT
Technical analysis also highlights potential downside risks.
Bitcoin may retest the $73,000 level in the short term, while further weakness could push the price toward $65,700 if resistance at key moving averages continues to hold.
Analysts are closely watching the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), which has acted as a resistance zone, along with the 200-week moving average — a historically important long-term support level.