The prospect of the United States formally establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) before the end of 2025 is “much higher than the market currently assumes,” according to Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn.

In a post on X, Thorn argued that investors and analysts are overlooking the likelihood that the U.S. government could announce the reserve this year, following policy moves and legislative interest in treating Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

Earlier coverage: Bitcoin ETFs Pull in $642M as Ether Adds $405M, Signaling Strong Institutional Confidence

“I still think there’s a strong chance the U.S. government will announce this year that it has formed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) and is formally holding BTC as a strategic asset,” Thorn wrote. “The market seems to be completely underpricing the likelihood of such an announcement.”

Signs That a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve May Be Moving Forward

The idea of an SBR was formally introduced in March, when President Trump signed an executive order establishing both the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. However, the details of the program and its implementation strategy remain unclear.

Despite the lack of clarity, several signs suggest momentum behind the initiative:

  • Earlier this week, U.S. lawmakers introduced a bill instructing the Treasury Department to study the technical and economic implications of creating such a reserve.
  • In late July, the administration’s crypto liaison reiterated that the government remains interested in pursuing the reserve, despite limited mentions in its broader digital asset policy report.

Source: Alex Thorn

Still, not all industry participants believe 2025 will be the decisive year. Dave Weisburger, former chairman of CoinRoutes, said he expects the initiative to materialize closer to 2026. “This administration is too smart to announce anything before hitting their initial accumulation targets,” he noted.

Concerns Over US Falling Behind in Global Bitcoin Accumulation

Some Bitcoin advocates warn that if the U.S. delays further, it risks being outpaced by other nations actively exploring state-level Bitcoin reserves.

Samson Mow, founder of Bitcoin infrastructure firm Jan3, told Cointelegraph in June that “the U.S. has to start this year” or risk falling behind. “The danger is being front-run by countries like Pakistan,” Mow said.

Recent developments abroad highlight this race:

  • Kyrgyzstan advanced a bill in September to establish its own national cryptocurrency reserve.
  • Earlier in August, Indonesian Bitcoin advocacy group Bitcoin Indonesia said it had held discussions with government officials on how Bitcoin reserves could drive economic growth.

With Bitcoin trading above $115,000 and global demand for crypto assets at an all-time high, the question is no longer whether governments will stockpile Bitcoin, but which ones will act first.