The idea of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has generated excitement in crypto circles, but one industry leader warns it could have damaging consequences for both Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar.
Haider Rafique, global managing partner for government and investor relations at crypto exchange OKX, told Cointelegraph that allowing a government to control large amounts of BTC risks undermining Bitcoin’s very foundation as a neutral, decentralized asset.
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“Any government holding significant portions of Bitcoin’s supply could manipulate the market by dumping coins at will. That immediately threatens the principle of Bitcoin as an apolitical, decentralized form of money,” Rafique said.
A breakdown of nation-state exposure to Bitcoin. Source: Bitcoin Policy Institute
He raised another concern: the volatility of political will. “What happens if a new administration decides a few years from now that the reserve was a mistake? Those BTC holdings could suddenly become a liquidation risk,” he warned.
Rafique pointed to Germany’s 2024 Bitcoin sell-off as a cautionary example. At the time, Berlin moved 50,000 BTC onto the market, keeping prices suppressed below $60,000 for weeks and sparking panic among retail investors.
Broader risks for the dollar and global markets
While Bitcoin advocates view a national reserve as a step toward making BTC the world’s reserve currency, Rafique argued that such a move could have profound — and negative — macroeconomic consequences.
“The most significant implication would be a loss of confidence in the dollar,” Rafique explained. “Building a Bitcoin reserve sends a message that the U.S. dollar — the backbone of the global financial system — can no longer sustain its value on its own economic strength.”
Such a perception shift, he warned, could send global investors scrambling out of dollars and into traditional safe havens like gold or the Swiss franc. The fallout wouldn’t be confined to crypto. “You’d see liquidations across equities, bonds, and risk assets everywhere, leading to a full-scale financial shock,” Rafique said.
Despite these warnings, many Bitcoiners continue to argue that a nation-state-level Bitcoin treasury is inevitable and even necessary to cement BTC’s role as a monetary benchmark. For critics, however, the risks to global financial stability may outweigh the ideological appeal.