Bitcoin may continue to underperform equities as the current cycle matures, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, who cautions against assuming a near-term rebound driven by precious metals.
Cowen said in a Thursday video that Bitcoin is likely to keep losing ground relative to the stock market, pushing back on the popular narrative that record highs in gold and silver will quickly translate into a major rotation into crypto. In his view, expectations of a rapid shift from metals into Bitcoin are premature.
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Gold and silver have recently surged to fresh all-time highs, with prices climbing to around $5,608 and $121, respectively, as investors seek safety amid macro uncertainty. While some market participants see this as a leading signal for Bitcoin, Cowen argues the historical relationship is often overstated in the short term.
Silver momentum builds, but crypto lags
Major banks are reinforcing the bullish outlook for metals. Citi said this week that silver could rise to $150 within three months, citing strong Chinese demand and a weakening US dollar. Despite that momentum, Cowen said the conditions for a meaningful Bitcoin rotation are not yet in place.
Bitcoin was trading near $82,900 at the time of publication, down nearly 8% over the past week. Broader market sentiment has also deteriorated. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently fell to 16, signaling extreme fear and heightened investor caution across the sector.
More constructive views emerge on timing
Not all analysts share Cowen’s near-term skepticism. Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, said the market may be approaching a traditional re-risking window for Bitcoin. He noted that Bitcoin bottoms have historically followed periods of gold strength with a lag of roughly 14 months.
If that historical pattern holds, Hundal believes a potential Bitcoin bottom could form within the next several weeks, possibly setting the stage for a recovery by late Q1. He added that gold typically leads during macro stress, while Bitcoin tends to benefit once risk appetite begins to return.
Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, has also pointed to Bitcoin’s relative valuation. In a January post, he said Bitcoin was trading at a steep discount compared to gold, calling such setups rare and suggesting that a shift in capital flows could mark an inflection point later in the cycle.